Our costly pattern-matching skills
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Recently I discussed how brand buy-in can cost money. Last night, the cost of pattern-matching was driven home to one of my friends in a painful—and expensive—way. Let me explain.
Around here, many of the intersections have left turn lanes on two or four of the connecting streets. Typically, the left turn arrows turn green first (on both opposing sides) and then the main lights for the straight lanes turn green. Sometimes, if only one left turn lane is occupied, the left turn arrow and the straight lane signals change at the same time. It’s very predictable and you get used to it. I take it into account when the distance to a point is the same regardless of whether I turn or go straight (that’s how it is to my house from some directions).
Human brains love patterns. We tend to believe in the patterns we’ve observed even when there is evidence to the contrary (take a look at this McGurk effect video if you don’t believe me.)
Last night my friend Peter was going home and pulled into a left turn lane. He saw the lights turn green and pulled out… only to be hit by oncoming traffic. Everyone was unharmed, but his car is totaled. It turned out that his left turn arrow hadn’t turned green, even though he had expected it to, even though he had every reason to expect it to. Sometimes our pattern-matching brains cannot be trusted. In Peter’s case, that one moment of trusting the pattern cost him a lot of money.
This isn’t just about driving. It’s true, safe driving can save you a bundle, both in costs for accidents and costs for insurance. It’s also just a good idea! But there are so many other areas of our lives where our pattern-matching instinct can cost us. Sometimes it a small cost, like choosing a product that is “supposed to be” less expensive without actually verifying that it is. Sometimes it’s bigger, like unearned business loyalty. Sometimes the cost may turn out to be worth it, depending on what you’re talking about. But it’s crucial that we make choices based on a true understanding of the issues (like whether or not the light is actually green, regardless of whether it should be) and don’t just trust the pattern without checking it regularly.